AI/MLMACHINE

Machine

A possession-level Monte Carlo of an NBA game. Before tip-off, MACHINE plays each game 10,000 times on STRYKE's player and lineup models and reports the whole distribution: who wins, by how much, the total and every quarter.

2026-27 regular season · through Oct 26, 2026

Favourite won

34–14

70.8% of 48 graded games

Brier score

0.217

Lower is better. A coin flip scores 0.250

Log loss

0.624

A coin flip scores 0.693

Home-team baseline

25–23

Picking every home team in the same games

Only forecasts produced before tip-off count, and none is revised afterwards. When a game was simulated more than once, the last run before the tip is graded. 4 of 52 regular-season games so far had no pre-tip run and are left out rather than backfilled. Preseason simulations were run after the games and are excluded. The model is labelled experimental until every team has played ten regular-season games.

By daySolid = hit · outline = miss

CalibrationFavourite's forecast vs result

Circle area = games in the bin. With 48 games each bin is still small; read the spread, not the points.

01Day by day

Monday, Oct 26, 2026

6–3 · 9 games

WASWizards

39.3%60.7%

HornetsCHA

103–110

Hit

MINTimberwolves

46.7%53.3%

CavaliersCLE

125–127 OT

Hit

DALMavericks

53.6%46.4%

HeatMIA

113–109

Hit

CHIBulls

56.0%44.0%

CelticsBOS

99–134

Miss

PHXSuns

37.7%62.3%

ThunderOKC

114–125

Hit

INDPacers

45.3%54.7%

BucksMIL

102–110

Hit

ATLHawks

48.1%51.9%

RocketsHOU

110–120

Hit

MEMGrizzlies

48.9%51.1%

JazzUTA

110–105

Miss

GSWWarriors

47.5%52.5%

NuggetsDEN

134–114

Miss

Sunday, Oct 25, 2026

4–2 · 6 games

INDPacers

50.2%49.8%

NetsBKN

136–109

Hit

LACClippers

20.3%79.7%

ThunderOKC

101–108

Hit

ORLMagic

38.6%61.4%

KnicksNYK

111–102

Miss

TORRaptors

51.2%48.8%

TimberwolvesMIN

94–117

Miss

DETPistons

57.9%42.1%

76ersPHI

106–93

Hit

MEMGrizzlies

59.1%40.9%

KingsSAC

123–112

Hit

Saturday, Oct 24, 2026

5–3 · 8 games

MIAHeat

54.6%45.4%

HornetsCHA

110–115

Miss

BKNNets

25.6%74.4%

CavaliersCLE

121–125

Hit

MILBucks

37.1%62.9%

76ersPHI

116–127

Hit

SASSpurs

73.9%26.1%

MavericksDAL

122–106

Hit

WASWizards

29.8%70.2%

BullsCHI

124–120

Miss

HOURockets

38.6%61.4%

HawksATL

121–114

Miss

NOPPelicans

29.9%70.1%

NuggetsDEN

135–141 OT

Hit

GSWWarriors

41.1%58.9%

SunsPHX

122–131

Hit

Friday, Oct 23, 2026

7–2 · 9 games

CHIBulls

57.0%43.0%

BucksMIL

132–125

Hit

TORRaptors

74.6%25.4%

WizardsWAS

112–102

Hit

MINTimberwolves

52.2%47.8%

MagicORL

115–93

Hit

DALMavericks

43.3%56.7%

PacersIND

121–105

Miss

ATLHawks

60.5%39.5%

HornetsCHA

128–81

Hit

NYKKnicks

43.7%56.3%

CelticsBOS

103–107

Hit

DETPistons

60.2%39.8%

HeatMIA

128–111

Hit

NOPPelicans

40.3%59.7%

JazzUTA

119–120

Hit

HOURockets

29.2%70.8%

SpursSAS

114–110

Miss

Thursday, Oct 22, 2026

1–1 · 2 games

CLECavaliers

59.6%40.4%

76ersPHI

106–114

Miss

DENNuggets

27.5%72.5%

ThunderOKC

84–96

Hit

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026

10–1 · 11 games

MILBucks

49.8%50.2%

WizardsWAS

116–128

Hit

ATLHawks

50.6%49.4%

MagicORL

132–125

Hit

CHAHornets

60.2%39.8%

NetsBKN

110–103

Hit

MINTimberwolves

50.8%49.2%

HeatMIA

131–106

Hit

CHIBulls

36.0%64.0%

RaptorsTOR

92–135

Hit

INDPacers

51.0%49.0%

PelicansNOP

123–120

Hit

UTAJazz

52.3%47.7%

GrizzliesMEM

103–123

Miss

DALMavericks

41.9%58.1%

RocketsHOU

110–128

Hit

GSWWarriors

39.3%60.7%

LakersLAL

105–127

Hit

PHXSuns

39.7%60.3%

Trail BlazersPOR

83–124

Hit

SACKings

37.1%62.9%

ClippersLAC

96–121

Hit

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026

1–2 · 3 games

BOSCeltics

43.8%56.2%

PistonsDET

113–121

Hit

PHI76ers

38.3%61.7%

KnicksNYK

106–100

Miss

OKCThunder

46.3%53.7%

SpursSAS

116–104

Miss

02Inside a run

MACHINE pregame scoreboard: Warriors 47.5 percent, Nuggets 52.5 percent, expected score 114.9 to 115.9 — **Pregame run**Warriors at Nuggets, October 26: 47.5% to 52.5% over 10,000 paths. Golden State won by 20, a miss.

MACHINE histograms of simulated team points, margin and total — **Distributions**Points for each team, margin and total across all 10,000 paths, with the most likely exact finals.

MACHINE heat map of home win probability by margin and time — **Win probability map**Share of paths the home team goes on to win, for every margin at every moment.

MACHINE quarter-by-quarter margin and total distributions — **Quarters**Simulated margin and total by quarter against the actual result.

MACHINE charts of largest lead and lead changes per simulated game — **Lead and comeback**Largest leads, lead changes and how often the winner trailed.

03How a forecast is made

Cut off

The run fixes a cutoff and uses only data published before it: the STRYKE model trained through the previous night, the latest availability, the projected rotation. A date guard in MACHINE refuses anything newer.

Possessions

Each simulated possession draws who uses it, the shot and where it comes from, the make, the rebound, fouls and free throws from STRYKE's conditional models, for the five players on the floor. The clock advances with a pace model calibrated on real possession lengths, and a home-court term shifts the home side's rates.

10,000 games

The game is played to the final buzzer, overtime included, 10,000 times with a recorded seed. Every run stores its inputs, model versions and seed, so any forecast can be rerun and checked.

Graded in public

Finals are matched to the forecast that existed before the tip. Every change to the model's defaults so far has shipped only after a pre-registered test on games it had not seen.